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The hypothetico-deductive model or method is a proposed description of scientific method. According to it, scientific inquiry proceeds by formulating a hypothesis in a form that could conceivably be falsified by a test on observable data. A test that could and does run contrary to predictions of the hypothesis is taken as a falsification of the hypothesis. A test that could but does not run contrary to the hypothesis corroborates the theory. It is then proposed to compare the explanatory value of competing hypotheses by testing how stringently they are corroborated by their predictions. ==Example== (詳細は :''1''. Use your experience: Consider the problem and try to make sense of it. Gather data and look for previous explanations. If this is a new problem to you, then move to step ''2''. :''2''. Form a conjecture (hypothesis): When nothing else is yet known, try to state an explanation, to someone else, or to your notebook. :''3''. Deduce predictions from the hypothesis: if you assume ''2'' is true, what consequences follow? :''4''. Test (or Experiment): Look for evidence (observations) that conflict with these predictions in order to disprove ''2''. It is a logical error to seek ''3'' directly as proof of ''2''. This formal fallacy is called ''affirming the consequent''.〔 e.g., p. 58, devotes his chapter 5 to ''the error of confirmation''.〕 One possible sequence in this model would be ''1'', ''2'', ''3'', ''4''. If the outcome of ''4'' holds, and ''3'' is not yet disproven, you may continue with ''3'', ''4'', ''1'', and so forth; but if the outcome of ''4'' shows ''3'' to be false, you will have to go back to ''2'' and try to invent a ''new 2'', deduce a ''new 3'', look for ''4'', and so forth. Note that this method can never absolutely verify (prove the truth of) ''2''. It can only falsify ''2''.〔"I believe that we do not know anything for certain, but everything probably." —Christiaan Huygens, Letter to Pierre Perrault, 'Sur la préface de M. Perrault de son traité del'Origine des fontaines' (), ''Oeuvres Complétes de Christiaan Huygens'' (1897), Vol. 7, 298. Quoted in Jacques Roger, ''The Life Sciences in Eighteenth-Century French Thought'', ed. Keith R. Benson and trans. Robert Ellrich (1997), 163. Quotation selected by Huygens 317#4.〕 (This is what Einstein meant when he said, "No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong."〔As noted by Alice Calaprice (ed. 2005) ''The New Quotable Einstein'' Princeton University Press and Hebrew University of Jerusalem, ISBN 0-691-12074-9 p. 291. Calaprice denotes this not as an exact quotation, but as a paraphrase of a translation of A. Einstein's "Induction and Deduction". ''Collected Papers of Albert Einstein'' 7 Document 28. Volume 7 is ''The Berlin Years: Writings, 1918-1921''. A. Einstein; M. Janssen, R. Schulmann, et al., eds.〕) 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Hypothetico-deductive model」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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